November already has a reputation as Orange's soggiest month, but this record run is something else.
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For the second consecutive calendar year, November has topped Orange's rainfall charts - pending December being an average month, weather-wise - with 236 millimetres of rain recorded at the city's official weather station at the airport.
It comes on the back of the wettest November on record just 12 months earlier, with 317mm recorded throughout the penultimate month of 2021.
On average, 94.1mm of rain falls in November in Orange. It's the highest average rainfall of any month in the year.
We nearly had that in one, 24-hour period in 2022, with the 24 hours to 9am on November 14 reporting 89.4mm. It was Orange's wettest November day on record.
The extremely soggy November takes Orange's annual rainfall total past 1300mm.
As of December 5, Orange has recorded 1306.6mm so far in 2022. Orange recorded 1455.8mm in 2021. That's the first time rain gauges across Orange have endured back-to-back 1300mm-plus years of rain.
Across Australia, weatherzone.com says the country recorded its second wettest spring in 123 years of records and its coldest spring since 2010.
The Southern Hemisphere's spring of 2022 was dominated by three wet-phase climate drivers in the Australian region:
- La Nina in the Pacific Ocean
- A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean
- A predominantly positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to the south of Australia
This trio of climate drivers caused an exceptional amount of cloud cover and rain over Australia between September and November, while the latter month also brought about some snow in Orange.
What to expect in Summer
Weatherzone.com says most seasonal forecast models suggest La Nia should persist until the end of 2022.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been in a neutral state for the past four consecutive weeks, with the 2022 negative IOD event most likely now over. This means the IOD should have no influence on Australia's weather this summer.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is also expected to remain in a predominantly positive phase during the first half of summer. However, as La Nia breaks down early next year, more neutral and negative phases of the SAM will become more likely.
In summary, Australia will most likely remain under the influence of La Nia and a positive SAM during the first month or two of summer.
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