An increase in avocado supply will maintain downward pressure on prices paid to farmers while marketers look to export opportunities to absorb more of the good fruit.
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In its recently released Global Avocado Update Rabobank highlights a 20 per cent year on year increase in the production of Australian fruit.
Emerging production from new plantations include more than 1500 hectares that will reach maturity this year.
Avocados Australia says the figure could be more like 1650ha while UNE remote mapping study suggests a bigger figure, but requires ground-truthing to establish fact.
Avocados Australia CEO John Tyas says trees planted in Western Australian and north Queensland five to 10 years ago at a time when the industry was in a buoyant phase are mainly responsible for the new wave of avocado production.
"The increase in volume has doubled in just a few years," he says, pointing out a forecast up from 150,000t this year to 170,000t by 2026.
Domestic consumption remains around 115,000t to 120,000t with export now taking 15pc of total production, up from 2-3pc only a few years ago.
Mr Tyas admits growers are "doing it tough with small margins" but added that good prospects for global growth consumer demand would ease those pressures.
New arrangements with Thailand, India and Japan to allow imported Hass avocados picked green to avoid treatment for fruit fly is a big deal for getting fruit into those locations.
A recent launch of Australian Hass avocados into India, featuring the smiling face of fast-bowling cricketer Brett Lee, met with a lot of attention.
"This is a new market for Hass variety avocados but presents very good opportunity," Mr Tyas says.
Avocado packer from Stuarts Point, Ian Tolson, says good export markets helped in bad season.
"When it comes to domestic sales everything is slowing up and that trend is showing up in avocados," he says. "But at under $3 a piece they are good value. In some places you can get them for $1.50. You don't get much for that price these days."
While morale among growers is soft, with some trying to offload farms developed during the boom times, others are "true farmers" who understand the ups and downs of a market.
His advice to growers includes a key focus on quality and yield per hectare.
"In times when the price is down but your yield is up - that helps," he says.
